It depends on the popularity of the name, whom it is registered with and from where you backorder it. If it's a popular name and there are many others who have backordered it, it enters in to auction and the highest bidder then gets the domain. In such a scenario I think it would be a waste of time. Another scenario could be if the name is registered through godaddy and you backorder it through godaddy, the chances of godaddy procuring the domain are more as they're best for catching names that were registered with them.
In general I would say go for a new domain rather than backordering another domain unless you want it for a specific purpose and there are no other alternatives.
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